Recent Naperville Trends

How has 2010 been for the Naperville single family housing market? Based on the latest numbers I have seen from MRED (the multiple listing service for our area), they are looking positive for single family Naperville home sales. And here is why -

Sold Median Price / Sold Average Price

In January , there was a gap of 16.3 % between these numbers. If you follow the Naperville market, we know that typically this gap is about 12%: In July it was 11.6% and has been improving since February. In dollars it looks like this: Average Jan/10 = $444,261. July/10 = $510,481, or an increase of 14.9%. Median Jan/10 = $371,750. July/10 = $451,500, up 21.5%.  These are strong numbers from my perspective.

Under Contract Price

Under Contract prices reflect the list price of homes that are currently under contract – not the selling price for those homes. It is a more narrow snapshot of where the market is at the current moment and is not necessarily indicative of an overall trend. For the record, prices for homes Under Contract have gone fro and average of $411,950 in Jan/10 to $429,900 in July/10 – an increase of 4.4%.

Supply & Demand

The changing numbers in this analytic seem to indicate positives for home sellers – as a general rule. Units under contract are up 73% since Jan/10 and units sold up 131.8. Outside of the spike we saw at the end of the tax credit window, this has generally been an improving number. Months Supply of Inventory continues to decline from 11.0 in Jan/10 to 8.0 in July/10. If it gets to 6, some experts consider that a balanced market!

Remember the line “I’ve got good news and bad news for you?” That’s what the Naperville 60540 market statistics are telling us through the end of June, 2010. Average list prices remain above $700,000 while median list prices are in the mid $400′s.  Homes are still selling, though not as quickly.

90-day stats for Single Family properties in NAPERVILLE, IL60540 as of February 3, 2012
Median List Price:	$446,018	Average List Price:	$660,294
Total Inventory:	189	Price per Square Foot:	$192
Average Home Size:	3,075	Median Lot Size:	10,863
Average # Beds:	3.82	Average # Baths:	3.08
Homes Absorbed:	11	Newly Listed:	5
Days on Market:	277	Average Age:	31

Median prices continue to decline in 2010 from the relative stability we had in the fourth quarter of 2009. Year to date, the median price has declined around 1% per month.

Inventory continues to rise to its highest levels since November 2009. Higher inventories mean more competition for sellers and more choices for buyers. This usually leads to increased pressure on home prices.

The good news? Market times are continuing to decline. Homes sell when they are priced attractively to the market – not before. Remember, the market determines what the selling price of the home is – not the investment in the home or what the seller needs to get out of the property.

National news in housing has been mixed lately, with home sales down over previous months but still higher than a year ago. The latest NAR report is available here. The numbers for Naperville single family homes continue steady on a month over month basis and stronger than a year ago. All statistics used in these reports come directly from Terradatum Inc. Their source is reported multiple listing service transactions.

Sold Homes: The average price for a single family home in Naperville sold for $423,729 in February 2010. That is an increase of 4.9% from the February 2009 average price of $404,026. Median prices were down at $315,080 vs $345,000. The gap between average and median price is typically around 12%. Last month it was 16%: this month it is almost 26%. That type of increase is only going to be caused by a wider range of prices above the median – an indicator that the upper levels of the Naperville housing market have started, and continue to move. Over the last two months the gap is widening.

The number of units sold is also up for February 2010 vs February 2009 at 52 vs 39 or a 33% increase. Homes under contract had a much sharper increase to 106 from 65 for the same period one year ago; an increase of 63%. (Both of these numbers are higher than January 2010 also!)

Months Supply of Inventory is a measure of how long, at the current rate of sales or absorption, would it take to sell out the market. The February MSI is 7.7, vs 14 a year ago – a decrease of over 46%. On a national level, the number is closer to 16 for this February and 24 months for last year at the same time – another indication that Naperville trends differ substantially from national numbers.

As always, if you want more detailed information or to look at the numbers on a more hyper-local level (zip code or subdivision) simply Order your free Market Report or drop me an email.

In talking with new homebuyers in Naperville or transferees, I am often asked what a typical home goes for in Naperville and how much that has changed in the last several years. And the answer?  It depends; what part of town (zip code) and even within a zip code, what subdivision. The following charts give a good picture of just home wide that variation is. Of note also is the differing trends by area.

As you can see, the first chart shows all of Naperville single family homes combined. Median price has dropped from around $508,000 13 months ago to a low in November of right around $480,000. Since then we have seen a recovery in prices to just under $490,000. Keep in mind, that median price in Naperville is generally about 12% lower than average price.

Our first breakout by zip code looks at 60540 home prices. During the same time period those have gone from a high of about $590,000 to just under $500,000 in August 09 – a sharp drop over a 4 month period. Since that time median prices have been drifting in a range of $490,000 to $500,000.

Next we look at home prices in 60563. Here we see a start around the $429,000 level with a decline to the low $390,000′s in December 09. Since then we have seen a sharp rebound to about $411,000  through February 2010.

Median home prices in 60564 have yet to see much of a recovery. Since April of 09 median pricing has gone from $568,000 to about $532,000 in February 2010.

Finally we look at 60565 home prices. This area of Naperville has weathered the past year much better than any other. In fact, the median price at the end of February 2010 of $445,000, is above the median of $430,000 in April 09! There had been a rise last summer to near the current level but there was a late year valley down to the low $430′s.

This is the maximum break out level for these charts. If you want to look deeper into your specific area or subdivision, drop me an email and we can take a look.

peace

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We are seeing a lot of numbers lately on this housing trend or that particular statistic on a national or regional basis and those are all well and good, but as always, here we look at what is happening to prices and sales activity for single family homes in Naperville. All statistics used in these reports come directly from Terradatum Inc. Their source is reported multiple listing service transactions. After an interesting 2009, how did 2010 start? Let’s look:

Sold Homes: The average price for a single family home in Naperville sold for $444,261 in January 2010. That is an increase of 16.1% from the January 2009 average price of $382,554. Median prices were relatively flat at $371,750 vs $366,500. The gap between average and median price is typically around 12%. This month it is around 16%. That type of increase is only going to be caused by a wider range of prices above the median – an indicator that the upper levels of the Naperville housing market are starting to move. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues in the coming months.

The number of units sold is also up for January 2010 vs January 2009 at 44 vs 40 or a 10% increase. Homes under contract had a much sharper increase to 78 from 61 for the same period one year ago; an increase of 28%.

As always, if you want more detailed information or to look at the numbers on a more hyper-local level (zip code or subdivision) simply Order your free Market Report or drop me an email.

The primary data source for the numbers used here is Terradatum Inc, as licensed by MRED, LLC. Some information may come from Altos Research, Inc.

Average Pricing: The bottom line measurement for homeowners is value. While this post won’t get into a philosophical discussion of just what “value” in housing means, we are looking and prices. And in 2009 Q4 vs Q1 showed an increase of 7.8% to $435,612 from $404,150! Sound good? Possibly, but if you look at the averages from the same time period a year ago – Q4 08 vs Q4 09, you will see that prices dropped by an average of 5.4% from $460,316 to $435,612.

Over the longer term Q1 08 thru Q4 09 we see prices have dropped, on average 11.7% from $493,527 to $435,612, or basically .5% per month over the last 24 months. Extended over a three year window, the overall drop is only 5.5% total! ($460,902 vs $435,612). Certainly much better than the national averages and indicative of the more stable nature of housing here in Naperville.

Median Price vs Average Price: Typically the difference between the Average Sold Price and Average Median price has ranged from $72,600 to $44,100, for an average difference of $56,000 over the time period studied, or about a 12% variation.

As always, if you want more detailed information or to look at the numbers on a more hyper-local level (zip code or subdivision) simply Order your free Market Report or drop me an email.  My next post will look at condo’s/townhome for the same periods. Check back!

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The primary data source for the numbers used here is Terradatum Inc, as licensed by MRED, LLC. The graph is from Altos Research, Inc, a nationally recognized supplier of real estate data.

Supply and Demand: Since market inventory has such an impact on pricing (basic supply and demand philosophy) let’s look at those numbers first. Homes For Sale, are down 18% for Q4 09 vs Q1 09 (1,297 vs 1,583) while homes Under Contract are up 6.6% (225 vs 211) and Homes Sold are up an astounding 92.5% for the same time frame (281 vs 146). So, looks like things really improved in Naperville over the course of 2009.

On a more extended basis the trend is moderated somewhat by a 2008 that was weaker than the past year.. If we look back to Q1 08 thru Q4 09 we see the following: Homes for Sale dropped 20.7% to 1,297 from 1,636. Homes Under Contract are down 12.5% to 225 from 257. Homes Sold increased 44.1% to 281 from 195.

As always, if you want more detailed information or to look at the numbers on a more hyper-local level (zip code or subdivision) simply Order your free Market Report or drop me an email.  My next post will look at pricing for the same periods. Check back!

This month’s market statistics report will focus on single family homes in all of Naperville. If you want zip code specific breakdowns fill in your info in the table to the right to have a report emailed to you. Or select the community of interest from the menu bar above. Look for a follow up post on condos/townhomes.

Last 12 Weeks vs Previous 12 Weeks: (Source -Terradatum/MRED, LLC). Numbers shown are based on single family data. Contact me for further individual breakdowns.

Homes Under Contract, 29 vs 24, down 17.2%. We have seen a bit of a slowdown in homes going under contract. This is typical of the seasonal nature of real estate. This is the first down month after 7 consecutive months on the uptick. Homes Sold went from 29 12 weeks ago to 26 or a decrease of 10.3%. Again, this is not unusual give the time of year.

Continuing the trend started last month, Homes For Sale decreased almost 14% from 1,134 to 976. With fewer homes on the market, we should begin to see some stabilization in pricing.

Median Price for Homes Sold in October 09 is down 1.6% from $409,038 to $402,418 – an insignificant change. The median for Homes Under Contract however, dropped from $429,466 to $414,412 – a decrease of 3.5%. Median List Price remained flat: $491,859 vs $492,067.

The Market Action Index is broken out by market quartiles this month and reflects different activity levels for each market segment. The lower priced homes have seen the most stability in activity, tier two the second most, and so on. the high end luxury market continues to move at the slowest pace. For more detailed information, send an email request with your specifics or complete the Report Request and it will be emailed to you shortly. And, as always, feel free to share this information with others.

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