National Housing Forecasts and Naperville

Prognosticators and predictors at the national and state levels are becoming bolder & more bullish on their views of housing forecasts for 2012. Credit standards are being loosened, and pending home sale contracts are up again. Some of the hardest hit markets nationally (Phoenix for example) are seeing incredible levels of activity and rapidly shrinking inventory levels.

Housing Crisis to End in 2012 as Banks Loosen Credit Standards from DSNews.com

Banks are now lending amounts up to 3.5 times borrower earnings. This is up from a low during the crisis of 3.2 times borrower earnings.

Banks are also loosening loan-to-value ratios (LTV), which Capital Economics denotes “the clearest sign yet of an improvement in mortgage credit conditions.”

In contrast to a low of 74 percent reached in mid-2010, banks are now lending at 82 percent LTV.

I don’t know about you, but I am wondering how good a loosening of standards is for the recovery, at this point in time. After all, lower lending standards and “creative” loan products created a higher level of  demand for homes by increasing the available pool of buyers – a house of cards if you will. And we all know what happened to that! (Note – mini rant and editorial comment).

Double Gains for the PHSI in January - from Chicago Agent Magazine

Quoting Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for NAR,

According to the latest data from NAR, the PHSI rose 2.0 percent from 95.1 in December to 97.0 in January. The index is 8.0 percent year-over-year, when it was 89.8 in January 2011, and it the highest since April 2010, when the home buyer tax credit pushed the index to a post-bubble high of 111.3.

Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said positive factors in the wider economy have aided housing.

On a more local level, here is a quick view of DuPage County numbers:

It is good news that Inventories are down around 46% from their highs in July of 09: Less inventory should lead to greater demand. Meanwhile, Median Sale Price has been inching upward since the end of the third quarter of 2011. So, locally, some good signs. Will they continue? Have we reached the bottom, or is the bottom already behind us? Hard to say, but the signs are good. Next week we will take a look at Naperville’s February numbers.

Naperville Home Sales Report – September 2011

Naperville Single Family Home Sales Report September 2011

The best we can say is that this months numbers for Naperville single family homes are mixed. Compared to September 2010, volume numbers are improved across the board. And this is consistant with national numbers and trends.  We see greater than a 10% increase in homes sold and homes under contract. Homes For Sale and Months Supply are significantly down – reduced inventory should have a positive impact on pricing.

*Source of above – MRED – Midwest Real Estate Data through September 2011.

Median Sold prices dropped 11.6% from the same period a year ago to $362,500. Median For Sale prices increased to $474,859. What this points to, in our opinion, is seller expectations of value are still higher than the market realities.

New this month, we are adding a Trend Graph to show the trends over time. As you can see, while inventory bubbles in the mid year time frame, Homes Sold and Homes Under Contract are fairly constant with some slight seasonal variation. There is constant demand for homes in Naperville and we view that as good.

The above statistics are for single family homes in Naperville, non-bank owned. The same information is available for Lisle, Aurora, Plainfield and Oswego and for bank owned. Give us a call at 630-718-2305 or drop us an email with your request. Additionally, you may have reports emailed directly to you for the zip code area you want to explore.

Housing Market Reports for Naperville, Lisle, Plainfield, Aurora, & Oswego

Free Housing Reports for Naperville, Lisle, Plainfield, Aurora, & Oswego

The housing market and its impact on the economy continues to make news. If you have followed this site over the last several years, you know that we track the statistics on a regular basis. We have available, by FREE subscription, weekly reports, by zipcode for attached (ATT) homes and single family (SF) homes for the communities of Naperville, Lisle, Plainfield, Aurora, & Oswego. You may want to examine a sample of what we offer before signing up. To that end the links below will allow you to download a complete report for each community for the week ended September 25, 2011.

Why are these reports different and why do we think they offer you value?

• Impartial – The data is extracted from multiple resources and records databases.
• Comprehensive – It is not just MLS data – it includes additional recorded transactions.
• Timely – Reports are updated on a weekly basis. Many reporting systems are monthly or the data is several months old by the time it is published.
• Segmented – The data is broken down by zip code and quartile to help dial in to your particular market segment.

Do these reports give the complete picture? Absolutely not. They give you a starting point to understand the market trends at certain levels. If you want the complete picture, contact us and we can sit down and discuss your specifics and get even more localized.

Aurora IL Real Estate Market Conditions condos & townhomes zip 60503

Median Price for homes in AURORA, IL 60503 as of September 23, 2011 is $145,000	Total Inventory for homes in AURORA, IL 60503 as of September 23, 2011 is 93
Average Days on Market for homes in AURORA, IL 60503 as of September 23, 2011 is 207	Median MAI for homes in AURORA, IL 60503 as of September 23, 2011 is 12.49

Aurora, IL Real Estate Market Conditions: Condos and Townhomes, zip 60504

Median Price for homes in AURORA, IL 60504 as of December 10, 2010 is $129,650	Inventory for homes in AURORA, IL 60504 as of December 10, 2010 is 148
Average Days on Market for homes in AURORA, IL 60504 as of December 10, 2010 is 185	Median MAI for homes in AURORA, IL 60504 as of December 10, 2010 is 33.26

A strong January for Naperville single family home sales

Image via Wikipedia

We are seeing a lot of numbers lately on this housing trend or that particular statistic on a national or regional basis and those are all well and good, but as always, here we look at what is happening to prices and sales activity for single family homes in Naperville. All statistics used in these reports come directly from Terradatum Inc. Their source is reported multiple listing service transactions. After an interesting 2009, how did 2010 start? Let’s look:

Sold Homes: The average price for a single family home in Naperville sold for $444,261 in January 2010. That is an increase of 16.1% from the January 2009 average price of $382,554. Median prices were relatively flat at $371,750 vs $366,500. The gap between average and median price is typically around 12%. This month it is around 16%. That type of increase is only going to be caused by a wider range of prices above the median – an indicator that the upper levels of the Naperville housing market are starting to move. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues in the coming months.

The number of units sold is also up for January 2010 vs January 2009 at 44 vs 40 or a 10% increase. Homes under contract had a much sharper increase to 78 from 61 for the same period one year ago; an increase of 28%.

As always, if you want more detailed information or to look at the numbers on a more hyper-local level (zip code or subdivision) simply Order your free Market Report or drop me an email.

Naperville Condos & Townhomes show interesting 09 numbers

Earlier this month we looked at how single family homes did in Naperville in the past year (2009) over the previous (2008) year. And the numbers seemed to bode well for a stronger 2010. In looking at the Condo & Townhome markets for the same time period we see some interesting trends.

Sold Average:  In the year ended 12/31/2008, the average price of a condo/townhome in Naperville dropped 2.5% over the previous 12 months while the median price rose 11.6%. Moving forward, at the end of 2009, the average sale price dropped 8% over its 2008 close while median price dropped 8.2%. Overall, over the two year period, average prices declined 10.3%; median rose 2.4%.

What is interesting about these numbers is that if you look at a month by move trend analysis it shows that average sales prices are recovering in same month comparisons to previous year. As an example, December 09 was up 6.5% over December 08.

Supply and Demand: Units sold and or under contract is a measure of how active the market is. And 2009 a small decrease in units sold over 2008, but still down sharply from the levels seen in 2007. Meanwhile, units for sale, (not shown in the table) show a 6% increase from  end of year 07 (498) to end of year 09 (528). this number spiked in December 08 at 564 units for sale.

So What:  Bottom line question is what does this mean for the Naperville housing market? In reverse order, given the number of units available for sale vs the number actually selling, buyers will continue to have a lot of choice. Sellers, in order to be competitive, need to have the home in the most attractive shape possible and at the best possible market price. Given the scope of choice available, you need to be the best value in your price range. The market will not come to meet the price you feel you should get for your property. You need to be priced to the market.

Related articles by Zemanta

• House Prices Off To Strong Start In 2010 (news.sky.com)
• New-Home Sales Decline (benzinga.com)

And the Naperville housing numbers for 2009 say…..

Continuing from the previous post on Naperville single family home sales activity we are going to look at pricing in a little more detail and over a slightly longer term to try and get a feel for where exactly this market is and where it is headed.

The primary data source for the numbers used here is Terradatum Inc, as licensed by MRED, LLC. Some information may come from Altos Research, Inc.

Average Pricing: The bottom line measurement for homeowners is value. While this post won’t get into a philosophical discussion of just what “value” in housing means, we are looking and prices. And in 2009 Q4 vs Q1 showed an increase of 7.8% to $435,612 from $404,150! Sound good? Possibly, but if you look at the averages from the same time period a year ago – Q4 08 vs Q4 09, you will see that prices dropped by an average of 5.4% from $460,316 to $435,612.

Over the longer term Q1 08 thru Q4 09 we see prices have dropped, on average 11.7% from $493,527 to $435,612, or basically .5% per month over the last 24 months. Extended over a three year window, the overall drop is only 5.5% total! ($460,902 vs $435,612). Certainly much better than the national averages and indicative of the more stable nature of housing here in Naperville.

Median Price vs Average Price: Typically the difference between the Average Sold Price and Average Median price has ranged from $72,600 to $44,100, for an average difference of $56,000 over the time period studied, or about a 12% variation.

As always, if you want more detailed information or to look at the numbers on a more hyper-local level (zip code or subdivision) simply Order your free Market Report or drop me an email.  My next post will look at condo’s/townhome for the same periods. Check back!

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Naperville Single Family homes on the rise

It is time to take a look at the performance in Naperville single family homes on a more long term basis. If you have been following these post in 2009, you know that typically I look at the 12 week period just ended vs the previous 12 week period – basically a rolling quarter vs quarter view. That let’s us see and track recent changes in market to try and spot trends as they are occurring (important if you are trying to catch a wave at a certain point). And 2009 had some quarterly ups and downs. Nationally, and on a statewide level we have been hearing numbers from Case Schiller and NAR that all point to short term improvements in housing numbers. Since real estate is so very local, our concern is Naperville and in particular for this analysis, single family homes, over a longer term to try and see a broader view.

The primary data source for the numbers used here is Terradatum Inc, as licensed by MRED, LLC. The graph is from Altos Research, Inc, a nationally recognized supplier of real estate data.

Supply and Demand: Since market inventory has such an impact on pricing (basic supply and demand philosophy) let’s look at those numbers first. Homes For Sale, are down 18% for Q4 09 vs Q1 09 (1,297 vs 1,583) while homes Under Contract are up 6.6% (225 vs 211) and Homes Sold are up an astounding 92.5% for the same time frame (281 vs 146). So, looks like things really improved in Naperville over the course of 2009.

On a more extended basis the trend is moderated somewhat by a 2008 that was weaker than the past year.. If we look back to Q1 08 thru Q4 09 we see the following: Homes for Sale dropped 20.7% to 1,297 from 1,636. Homes Under Contract are down 12.5% to 225 from 257. Homes Sold increased 44.1% to 281 from 195.

As always, if you want more detailed information or to look at the numbers on a more hyper-local level (zip code or subdivision) simply Order your free Market Report or drop me an email.  My next post will look at pricing for the same periods. Check back!

Good Holiday News for Naperville housing market

Illinois Home Sales Record Major Gains in November from a Year Ago
Sales Up 64.0% Statewide and 71.6% in Chicago Region

This was the headline from a news release out of Springfield this week and marks the second consecutive month that double digit gains were seen in Illinois home sales numbers. Statewide total home sales (which include single-family and condominiums) in November 2009 reached 10,361 homes sold, up 64.0 percent from November 2008 sales of 6,317, marking the third consecutive month of year-over-year sales increases in Illinois.

And the forecast for the next several months?

“Forecasts for December, January and February indicate sales increasing robustly in Illinois and Chicago on an annual basis, but median price movements in Illinois hold the potential for a mild recovery that is not, as yet, evident in the Chicago market,” Dr. Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) of the University of Illinois.

While statewide markets seem to be stabilizing, we like to look at the numbers on a more local level. In DuPage County median prices of homes sold (single family and conds/townhomes) are relatively flat from a year ago.

In Naperville, the average median price for single family homes is about 5.8% lower than than it was a year ago. Inventory is down about 5.7% for the same period.

All told, Naperville may not be experiencing the the same rates of recovery that other areas of the state are seeing, but then again, we did not fall as sharply either. We will continue to keep an eye on the numbers and provide our interpretation as viewed thru a Naperville lens. If you want to see additional numbers or examine them in more detail contact me at 630.542.7732 or email me. Have a great holiday season and Merry Christmas.