Thinking of renting that Naperville home? Scam Alert

While this video comes from Dallas, TX, if you are thinking of renting your home or investment property, it’s worth a watch. The basic message is if your potential renter wires you or mails you funds and asks for the money to be deposited and a portion of it returned, odds are it is a scam.

If you want help renting that property, screening potential renters and getting the most out of your investment, give me a call and let’s talk about how I can help.

Housing Indicators Expected to Rise

From Market Watch 10/19/2009

Major housing indicators should rise again in September, according to a survey of top economic forecasters ahead of a relatively light week for economic data. Data on housing will dominate the headlines this coming week. Full Report

We will be keeping watch and posting links to the most relevant posts/articles/releases as they become available. With continued strength in the markets and activity in DC on the Tax Credit, housing should continue to be at the forefront of the news in the fourth quarter.

New Look for Naperville Market Stats

There is a new look to the Market Stats charts for Naperville, IL. The flash charts shown below allow you to look at different time frames, hover over data points to get detailed information and more. Play with them, change the view period (top left), move the sliders (bottom right) to select different ranges, or hover over a data point to see the details. Don’t forget to peek at the Inventory bar graph to see how that is tracking with the graphed stats.

Play with them and please, let me know what you think. (And if I am getting too geeky with the stats, let me know that too!)

All Naperville, Single Family Homes

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Adjust the slide bar above to change the view period.

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Naperville, 60540 Single Family Homes

[kml_flashembed movie="http://www.altosresearch.com/altos/widgets/AltosChart.swf" height="400" width="600" fversion="9" useexpressinstall="true" fvars="st = IL ; c = NAPERVILLE; z = 60540 ; ts = z ; pai = 52577180 ; q = a ; mini = median_inventory ; datahost = data.altosresearch.com ; datahostssl = false ; rt = sf ; s = mean_dom:l,median_price:r ; ra = c ; ihr = false ; fc = false ; rf = xml ; u = tonylazz ; p = aes_enc::BojMsH5VOSeZzqFUwfX2ow==" /]

Adjust the slide bar above to change the view period.

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Naperville, 60563 Single Family Homes

[kml_flashembed movie="http://www.altosresearch.com/altos/widgets/AltosChart.swf" height="400" width="600" fversion="9" useexpressinstall="true" fvars="st = IL ; c = NAPERVILLE; z = 60563 ; ts = z ; pai = 52577180 ; q = a ; mini = median_inventory ; datahost = data.altosresearch.com ; datahostssl = false ; rt = sf ; s = mean_dom:l,median_price:r ; ra = c ; ihr = false ; fc = false ; rf = xml ; u = tonylazz ; p = aes_enc::BojMsH5VOSeZzqFUwfX2ow==" /]

Adjust the slide bar above to change the view period.

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Naperville, 60564 Single Family Homes

[kml_flashembed movie="http://www.altosresearch.com/altos/widgets/AltosChart.swf" height="400" width="600" fversion="9" useexpressinstall="true" fvars="st = IL ; c = NAPERVILLE; z = 60564 ; ts = z ; pai = 52577180 ; q = a ; mini = median_inventory ; datahost = data.altosresearch.com ; datahostssl = false ; rt = sf ; s = mean_dom:l,median_price:r ; ra = c ; ihr = false ; fc = false ; rf = xml ; u = tonylazz ; p = aes_enc::BojMsH5VOSeZzqFUwfX2ow==" /]

Adjust the slide bar above to change the view period.

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Naperville, 60565 Single Family Homes

[kml_flashembed movie="http://www.altosresearch.com/altos/widgets/AltosChart.swf" height="400" width="600" fversion="9" useexpressinstall="true" fvars="st = IL ; c = NAPERVILLE; z = 60565 ; ts = z ; pai = 52577180 ; q = a ; mini = median_inventory ; datahost = data.altosresearch.com ; datahostssl = false ; rt = sf ; s = mean_dom:l,median_price:r ; ra = c ; ihr = false ; fc = false ; rf = xml ; u = tonylazz ; p = aes_enc::BojMsH5VOSeZzqFUwfX2ow==" /]

Adjust the slide bar above to change the view period.

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Naperville makes Today Show's top 10 places to buy.

Naperville came in at number 7 on NBC Today Show’s top 10 places to buy a home right now. Their recommendations are based on rate of recovery from previous year decreases in price. I am a little surprised at their median home price for Naperville – $207,000. The stats I follow show the median for condos/town homes to be $189,000, and single family @ $479,900.

Regardless exposure and promotion of Naperville as a hot place to buy should do good things for our market. After all, we know Naperville is a great place to live and work already!

Pending home sales continue to climb

Information released Tuesday, Sept 15, 2009 by the National Association of Realtors shows that contract activity for home sales has risen for the sixth straight month. The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in July, increased 3.2 percent to 97.6 from a reading of 94.6 in June, and is 12.0 percent higher than July 2008 when it was 87.1. The index is at the highest level since June 2007 when it was 100.7.

As Yu indicates the national market appears to be at or recovering from its bottom. For buyers, it means better chances for appreciation of your purchase. For sellers it is still unclear that higher prices are right around the corner. but from stability could come growth.
The housing market builds from the bottom up, but most indicators are positive, reflecting a trend we have seen in Naperville since early 2009.

What is Shadow Inventory and why should I care?

Depending on who you talk to this term has different meanings. As a general rule it is considered houses that are waiting to come on the market. And when they come on, the question becomes how much impact will they have on prices. It’s basic supply and demand – if supply suddenly increases by a dramatic amount, choices are increased, selling competition is increased, and prices will generally decline.

If you are contemplating selling, this is probably something you do not want to hear but need to.

One source of this shadow inventory is the banks and lending institutions. Over the past several years we have seen many sellers trying to out from under on mortgages by trying a “short sale”. (A short sale is when the mortgage holder agrees to take less than the mortgage value of the property to settle the debt.) These homes were on the market – listed in one form or another. Those that sold and closed, get removed from the inventory. Those homes that don’t usually fall into foreclosure.

Once the bank forecloses, it is usually months before the home makes it back onto the market place. Why? According to Dr.HousingBubble.com ..” There is speculation surrounding why this is happening.  Lenders are overwhelmed and simply do not have the human capital to handle the glut so goes one theory.  Others speculate that lenders are simply too incompetent to have a system in place to handle the mess they created.  There is truth in both of these scenarios….”

Here in Naperville, I have become involved with listing and selling REO’s (bank owned properties) and what happens is that post-foreclosure the home sits – redemption period, then sometimes effort is made to get it market ready with repairs, and then sometimes it just sits. I have properties I have been babysitting for months waiting for the ok from the lending institution to list and put the home back on the market.

How many are there in this mode in the Naperville and greater Chicagoland area? I don’t have a number and wouldn’t want to speculate. I do know that they can’t be held off the market forever. At some point the banks will realize they are not in the business of holding on to vacant properties and they will hit the market. And there will be an impact.

Naperville Absorption Rate Update

Absorption rate – How quickly is the market absorbing those homes that are for sale? How much inventory is out there? If I am selling, how long will my house be on the market. Here is what the numbers are for Naperville as of Mid-August:

At the current rate of sales we have almost 16 weeks of inventory on the market, according to the standard calculation. If that is true, why are DOM (Days on Market) more in the 7-8 month range? Here is where I look at Net Absorption rate: Inventory/(Homes Absorbed – New Listings). This calculation yields a number in the 8.5 months rage which tracks with the DOM.

In answer to the question posed above regarding how long one could expect to have on the market, the answer, for an average home in the current market is around 8.5 months. Not average? Want to sell quicker. Look for my next post on how to prepare your home for selling in today’s market.

Naperville market stats continue to improve

The numbers are in for the end of July and are continuing to improve. Numbers released in the past week show that nationally, we may be starting to recover from the housing crisis. Sales of existing homes were up again in June 3.6% over the prior month, yet still slightly lower than a year ago. Our interest though is more local, and from that perspective the Naperville market momentum is continuing. Shown below are summary stats for all of Naperville. If you want zip code specific breakdowns they are also available.

Last 12 Weeks vs Previous 12 Weeks: (Source -Terradatum/MRED, LLC). Numbers shown are based on single family and townhome/condo data combined. Contact me for further individual breakdowns.

Homes Under Contract, 44 vs 35, up 25.4%. The trend continues, now in its fifth consecutive month. There are good values out there and buyers are taking advantage of them.

Median Price , $346.9k vs $297.6k – an increase of 16.5%. This metric started climbing in late April, and is usually related to increased demand in the marketplace. This represents the third month in a row of double digit growth in Median Price.

Average Units for Sale of 1,657 vs 1,595 or an increase of 3.9%. We are starting to actually see a decline in the weekly numbers over the past 6 weeks. This is inventory reduction and helps sellers strengthen their position with less competition.

Units Sold has continued to climb on a weekly basis. The current average of 41 vs 25 in the previous 12 week period is an increase of 66.1%. The continued change in this metric is a measure of strength in the market. And it is not just foreclosures that are selling!

Market Action Index has climbed close to 11 which is still indicative of a Buyers Market. (Neutrality is when the mark is around 30) but a 22% jump from the previous level. With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should still find ample inventory. For sellers, properties need to be in the best possible condition to get the market’s attention at their price point.

Summary Again, for the fourth month in a row the Naperville market continues to show signs of recovery. Homes are going under contract and closings are increasing. Inventories are up slightly as are pending sales.

Naperville housing statistics – thru June 2009

Naperville Housing

The numbers are in for the end of June and are continuing to improve. Numbers released this morning show that nationally, pending sales in May increased for the fourth month in a row (source Inman News), with impetus coming from lower prices and the first time buyers credit. Our interest though is more local, and from that perspective the Naperville market momentum is continuing. Shown below are summary stats for all of Naperville. If you want zip code specific breakdowns they are also available.

Last 12 Weeks vs Previous 12 Weeks: (Source -Terradatum/MRED, LLC). Numbers shown are based on single family and townhome/condo data combined. Contact me for further individual breakdowns.

Homes Under Contract, 45 vs 26, up 70.7%. This is a trend that we have noted for the last four months and is indicative of a healthier market. There are good values out there and buyers are taking advantage of them.

Median Price , $314.7k vs $307k – an increase of 11.6%. This metric started climbing in late April, and is usually related to increased demand in the marketplace.

Average Units for Sale of 1,645 vs 1,473 or an increase of 11.6%. The recent trend had been steadily climbing since early February until a flattening in April. This number has leveled out since early April – lower indicating a consistent level of available units.

Units Sold has continued to climb on a weekly basis. The current average of 32 vs 18 in the previous 12 week period is an increase of 72.1%, possibly indicative of renewed confidence in the market.

Market Action Index is still around the 9 mark which is indicative of a Buyers Market. (Neutrality is when the mark is around 30). With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should still find ample inventory. For sellers, properties need to be in the best possible condition to get the market’s attention at their price point.

Summary Again, for the fourth month in a row the Naperville market continues to show signs of recovery. Homes are going under contract and closings are increasing. Inventories are up slightly as are pending sales.

Note: If you would like to be updated regularly on housing statistics in your area, just drop me an email and the data will be sent to you automatically.

Illinois May Home Sales up 19.3 – Good News for Naperville

Naperville Housing

Information just released by Illinois Association of Realtors:

Illinois Market Gets Moving with May Home Sales Up 19.3 Percent from April; Statewide Median Price at $158,000

SPRINGFIELD, Ill. — The month of May marked the fourth consecutive month-to-month increase in home sales for the Illinois housing market and the third monthly increase in the statewide median home sale price, according to the Illinois Association of REALTORS® latest report. Total home sales (which include single-family and condominiums) were up 19.3 percent in May 2009 to 8,945 homes compared to 7,501 homes sold in April 2009. Compared to a year ago, home sales were down 21.0 percent from May 2008 sales of 11,326.

The Illinois median price in May 2009 was $158,000, up 4.5 percent from $151,200 in April 2009; it was down 16.0 percent from $188,000 a year ago in May 2008. The median is a typical market price where half the homes sold for more, half sold for less.

“We are seeing more activity in the housing market with increased listings, more activity at showings, a surge in interest from first-time buyers as well as some improvement in time on market,” said REALTOR® Pat Callan, president of the Illinois Association of REALTORS®. “First-time homebuyers who want to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit need to be aware that the purchase has to close no later than November 30 given the December 1 cut-off under current guidelines by the federal government. That means being under contract by early fall.”

If you want to see the stats for Naperville and surrounding areas just click Market Statistics or visit MyNapervilleRealEstate.com.