A strong January for Naperville single family home sales

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We are seeing a lot of numbers lately on this housing trend or that particular statistic on a national or regional basis and those are all well and good, but as always, here we look at what is happening to prices and sales activity for single family homes in Naperville. All statistics used in these reports come directly from Terradatum Inc. Their source is reported multiple listing service transactions. After an interesting 2009, how did 2010 start? Let’s look:

Sold Homes: The average price for a single family home in Naperville sold for $444,261 in January 2010. That is an increase of 16.1% from the January 2009 average price of $382,554. Median prices were relatively flat at $371,750 vs $366,500. The gap between average and median price is typically around 12%. This month it is around 16%. That type of increase is only going to be caused by a wider range of prices above the median – an indicator that the upper levels of the Naperville housing market are starting to move. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues in the coming months.

The number of units sold is also up for January 2010 vs January 2009 at 44 vs 40 or a 10% increase. Homes under contract had a much sharper increase to 78 from 61 for the same period one year ago; an increase of 28%.

As always, if you want more detailed information or to look at the numbers on a more hyper-local level (zip code or subdivision) simply Order your free Market Report or drop me an email.

Naperville Condos & Townhomes show interesting 09 numbers

Earlier this month we looked at how single family homes did in Naperville in the past year (2009) over the previous (2008) year. And the numbers seemed to bode well for a stronger 2010. In looking at the Condo & Townhome markets for the same time period we see some interesting trends.

Sold Average:  In the year ended 12/31/2008, the average price of a condo/townhome in Naperville dropped 2.5% over the previous 12 months while the median price rose 11.6%. Moving forward, at the end of 2009, the average sale price dropped 8% over its 2008 close while median price dropped 8.2%. Overall, over the two year period, average prices declined 10.3%; median rose 2.4%.

What is interesting about these numbers is that if you look at a month by move trend analysis it shows that average sales prices are recovering in same month comparisons to previous year. As an example, December 09 was up 6.5% over December 08.

Supply and Demand: Units sold and or under contract is a measure of how active the market is. And 2009 a small decrease in units sold over 2008, but still down sharply from the levels seen in 2007. Meanwhile, units for sale, (not shown in the table) show a 6% increase from  end of year 07 (498) to end of year 09 (528). this number spiked in December 08 at 564 units for sale.

So What:  Bottom line question is what does this mean for the Naperville housing market? In reverse order, given the number of units available for sale vs the number actually selling, buyers will continue to have a lot of choice. Sellers, in order to be competitive, need to have the home in the most attractive shape possible and at the best possible market price. Given the scope of choice available, you need to be the best value in your price range. The market will not come to meet the price you feel you should get for your property. You need to be priced to the market.

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And the Naperville housing numbers for 2009 say…..

Continuing from the previous post on Naperville single family home sales activity we are going to look at pricing in a little more detail and over a slightly longer term to try and get a feel for where exactly this market is and where it is headed.

The primary data source for the numbers used here is Terradatum Inc, as licensed by MRED, LLC. Some information may come from Altos Research, Inc.

Average Pricing: The bottom line measurement for homeowners is value. While this post won’t get into a philosophical discussion of just what “value” in housing means, we are looking and prices. And in 2009 Q4 vs Q1 showed an increase of 7.8% to $435,612 from $404,150! Sound good? Possibly, but if you look at the averages from the same time period a year ago – Q4 08 vs Q4 09, you will see that prices dropped by an average of 5.4% from $460,316 to $435,612.

Over the longer term Q1 08 thru Q4 09 we see prices have dropped, on average 11.7% from $493,527 to $435,612, or basically .5% per month over the last 24 months. Extended over a three year window, the overall drop is only 5.5% total! ($460,902 vs $435,612). Certainly much better than the national averages and indicative of the more stable nature of housing here in Naperville.

Median Price vs Average Price: Typically the difference between the Average Sold Price and Average Median price has ranged from $72,600 to $44,100, for an average difference of $56,000 over the time period studied, or about a 12% variation.

As always, if you want more detailed information or to look at the numbers on a more hyper-local level (zip code or subdivision) simply Order your free Market Report or drop me an email.  My next post will look at condo’s/townhome for the same periods. Check back!

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Naperville Single Family homes on the rise

It is time to take a look at the performance in Naperville single family homes on a more long term basis. If you have been following these post in 2009, you know that typically I look at the 12 week period just ended vs the previous 12 week period – basically a rolling quarter vs quarter view. That let’s us see and track recent changes in market to try and spot trends as they are occurring (important if you are trying to catch a wave at a certain point). And 2009 had some quarterly ups and downs. Nationally, and on a statewide level we have been hearing numbers from Case Schiller and NAR that all point to short term improvements in housing numbers. Since real estate is so very local, our concern is Naperville and in particular for this analysis, single family homes, over a longer term to try and see a broader view.

The primary data source for the numbers used here is Terradatum Inc, as licensed by MRED, LLC. The graph is from Altos Research, Inc, a nationally recognized supplier of real estate data.

Supply and Demand: Since market inventory has such an impact on pricing (basic supply and demand philosophy) let’s look at those numbers first. Homes For Sale, are down 18% for Q4 09 vs Q1 09 (1,297 vs 1,583) while homes Under Contract are up 6.6% (225 vs 211) and Homes Sold are up an astounding 92.5% for the same time frame (281 vs 146). So, looks like things really improved in Naperville over the course of 2009.

On a more extended basis the trend is moderated somewhat by a 2008 that was weaker than the past year.. If we look back to Q1 08 thru Q4 09 we see the following: Homes for Sale dropped 20.7% to 1,297 from 1,636. Homes Under Contract are down 12.5% to 225 from 257. Homes Sold increased 44.1% to 281 from 195.

As always, if you want more detailed information or to look at the numbers on a more hyper-local level (zip code or subdivision) simply Order your free Market Report or drop me an email.  My next post will look at pricing for the same periods. Check back!

Good Holiday News for Naperville housing market

Illinois Home Sales Record Major Gains in November from a Year Ago
Sales Up 64.0% Statewide and 71.6% in Chicago Region

This was the headline from a news release out of Springfield this week and marks the second consecutive month that double digit gains were seen in Illinois home sales numbers. Statewide total home sales (which include single-family and condominiums) in November 2009 reached 10,361 homes sold, up 64.0 percent from November 2008 sales of 6,317, marking the third consecutive month of year-over-year sales increases in Illinois.

And the forecast for the next several months?

“Forecasts for December, January and February indicate sales increasing robustly in Illinois and Chicago on an annual basis, but median price movements in Illinois hold the potential for a mild recovery that is not, as yet, evident in the Chicago market,” Dr. Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) of the University of Illinois.

While statewide markets seem to be stabilizing, we like to look at the numbers on a more local level. In DuPage County median prices of homes sold (single family and conds/townhomes) are relatively flat from a year ago.

In Naperville, the average median price for single family homes is about 5.8% lower than than it was a year ago. Inventory is down about 5.7% for the same period.

All told, Naperville may not be experiencing the the same rates of recovery that other areas of the state are seeing, but then again, we did not fall as sharply either. We will continue to keep an eye on the numbers and provide our interpretation as viewed thru a Naperville lens. If you want to see additional numbers or examine them in more detail contact me at 630.542.7732 or email me. Have a great holiday season and Merry Christmas.

Mixed numbers for Naperville townhomes and condos

The numbers for attached homes in Naperville over the last 12 weeks have some positives in them: Units For Sale dropped 10% while units Sold climbed 17%. Obviously the decrease in inventory and increased sales bodes well for those who have their condos or townhomes on the market.

From a dollar perspective, prices for units Sold and Under Contract are down sharply -14% and -15% respectively. Some of this average decline in median prices could just be variations in the what units have sold (lower priced units vs higher priced units) and the seasonal nature of the market,  but some may also be reflective of a continued resetting of prices.

Naperville November home sales continue strong.

There has been a significant amount of news coverage lately on home sale statistics. The Illinois Association of Realtors (IAR) recently announced record sales levels for October. On a more local level we are continuing to see the seasonal effect typical of this time of year, although market activity remains strong over the same period a year ago.

This report focuses on single family home activity in Naperville. Other posts will focus on townhome and condo activity in Naperville and Aurora. If you want to drill down even more, detailed reports are available by zip code. Just click the button to the right and indicate in what area you want additional information. It will be emailed to you promptly.

Last 12 Weeks vs Previous 12 Weeks: (Source -Terradatum/MRED, LLC). Numbers shown are based on single family data. Contact me for further individual breakdowns.

Homes Under Contract, 20 vs 29, down 16.9%. We have seen a bit of a slowdown in homes going under contract. This is typical of the seasonal nature of real estate. This is the first down month after 7 consecutive months on the uptick. Homes Sold went from 29 12 weeks ago to 20 or a decrease of 32.7%. Again, this is not unusual give the time of year. On a year over year basis, Homes Sold are up 16.2% over the same period one year ago. That is good news for the long term.

Continuing the trend started last month, Homes For Sale decreased almost 17% from 1090 to 907. With fewer homes on the market, we should begin to see some stabilization in pricing.

Median Price for Homes Sold in November 09 is down 5.2% from $408,210 to $387,162 This change is probably more a function of which properties are selling . The median for Homes Under Contract however, dropped from $424,462 to $405,554 – a decrease of 4.5%. Median List Price remained relatively flat: $489,400 vs $491,217.

The Market Action Index is broken out by market quartiles this month and reflects different activity levels for each market segment. The lower priced homes have seen the most stability in activity, tier two the second most, and so on. the high end luxury market continues to move at the slowest pace. For more detailed information, send an email request with your specifics or complete the Report Request and it will be emailed to you shortly. And, as always, feel free to share this information with others.

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Naperville single family homes show signs of leveling

Washington is on the verge of passing legislation extending and expanding the Housing Tax Credit. Key dates to remember are purchase agreement signed by the end of April 2010 and closing by the end of June 2010. All indicators are that the credit so far has provided the sought after stimulus it was designed for and this extension and expansion is expected to drive further activity. There are other factors that continue to play and at a recent economic forecast breakfast hosted by the Naperville Chamber of Commerce, key indicators seem to point to a recovery more so in the 2^nd quarter of 2010 and beyond. Continued higher unemployment and tight lending for small business are slowing everything down.

This month’s market statistics report will focus on single family homes in all of Naperville. If you want zip code specific breakdowns fill in your info in the table to the right to have a report emailed to you. Or select the community of interest from the menu bar above. Look for a follow up post on condos/townhomes.

Last 12 Weeks vs Previous 12 Weeks: (Source -Terradatum/MRED, LLC). Numbers shown are based on single family data. Contact me for further individual breakdowns.

Homes Under Contract, 29 vs 24, down 17.2%. We have seen a bit of a slowdown in homes going under contract. This is typical of the seasonal nature of real estate. This is the first down month after 7 consecutive months on the uptick. Homes Sold went from 29 12 weeks ago to 26 or a decrease of 10.3%. Again, this is not unusual give the time of year.

Continuing the trend started last month, Homes For Sale decreased almost 14% from 1,134 to 976. With fewer homes on the market, we should begin to see some stabilization in pricing.

Median Price for Homes Sold in October 09 is down 1.6% from $409,038 to $402,418 – an insignificant change. The median for Homes Under Contract however, dropped from $429,466 to $414,412 – a decrease of 3.5%. Median List Price remained flat: $491,859 vs $492,067.

The Market Action Index is broken out by market quartiles this month and reflects different activity levels for each market segment. The lower priced homes have seen the most stability in activity, tier two the second most, and so on. the high end luxury market continues to move at the slowest pace. For more detailed information, send an email request with your specifics or complete the Report Request and it will be emailed to you shortly. And, as always, feel free to share this information with others.

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Naperville's local market trends

Just how “hyper-local” is the Naperville real estate market?  As I have been watching the statistics over the past several months it has become apparent that it is very local. Many of you receive my free monthly reports from Altos Research that show the trends in your particular zip code. And some numbers are up and some are down. What is interesting is how they vary by zip code in Naperville. The chart below reflects the trend in Median Price, by zip, over the past 12 months:

As you can see, the central part of town, 60540, has seen the sharpest drop in Median Price while the southeast, 60565 has remained the most stable. If you are interested in seeing how this drills down to the subdivision level, drop me an email or give me a call and let me know what area you want to view.  And as always, you can request your free reports here.

Naperville Home Sales for September

The latest buzz in the housing market is the efforts in Washington to extend the Home Buyer’s Tax Credit. Just this week several local politicians announced their support for expansion and/or extension. Meanwhile, here in Naperville, the numbers are in for the end of September. And market momentum is continuing. Shown below are summary stats for all of Naperville. If you want zip code specific breakdowns fill in your info in the table to the right. AS promised last month, the issue of Shadow Inventory was discussed in another post.

Last 12 Weeks vs Previous 12 Weeks: (Source -Terradatum/MRED, LLC). Numbers shown are based on single family and townhome/condo data combined. Contact me for further individual breakdowns.

Homes Under Contract, 36 vs 40, up 8.5%. The trend continues, now in its seventh consecutive month here in Naperville. There are good values out there and buyers continue to advantage of them.

Median Price for Homes sold in Sept 09 is down 2.1% over the same period one year ago, and -5.7% over Sept 07.  At the same time, Average Price is -8.7% over Sept 08, but up 4.1% over Sept 07.

Reflecting a seasonal trend, the number of Homes for Sale is down 4.6% for the current 12 week period over the previous 12 weeks – a typical occurrence for this time of year. Homes Under Contract is down a similar level -4.4%.

Units Sold has flattened out this period which is typical from a seasonal perspective.. The current average of 40 vs 36 in the previous 12 week period is an increase of 8.5%. The continued change in this metric is a measure of strength in the market. And it is not just foreclosures that are selling!

Market Action Index has climbed to a point where it is exceeding last years level!  still indicative of a Buyers Market. (Neutrality is when the mark is around 30) but a 22% jump from the previous level. With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should still find ample inventory. For sellers, properties need to be in the best possible condition to get the market’s attention at their price point.

Summary For the sixth month in a row the Naperville market continues to show signs of recovery. Homes are going under contract and closings are increasing. Inventories are up decreasing as more homes are absorbed and pending sales continue to be stable..

Note: If you would like to be updated regularly on housing statistics in your area, enter your info in the block to the right.