Naperville Single Family homes on the rise

It is time to take a look at the performance in Naperville single family homes on a more long term basis. If you have been following these post in 2009, you know that typically I look at the 12 week period just ended vs the previous 12 week period – basically a rolling quarter vs quarter view. That let’s us see and track recent changes in market to try and spot trends as they are occurring (important if you are trying to catch a wave at a certain point). And 2009 had some quarterly ups and downs. Nationally, and on a statewide level we have been hearing numbers from Case Schiller and NAR that all point to short term improvements in housing numbers. Since real estate is so very local, our concern is Naperville and in particular for this analysis, single family homes, over a longer term to try and see a broader view.

The primary data source for the numbers used here is Terradatum Inc, as licensed by MRED, LLC. The graph is from Altos Research, Inc, a nationally recognized supplier of real estate data.

Supply and Demand: Since market inventory has such an impact on pricing (basic supply and demand philosophy) let’s look at those numbers first. Homes For Sale, are down 18% for Q4 09 vs Q1 09 (1,297 vs 1,583) while homes Under Contract are up 6.6% (225 vs 211) and Homes Sold are up an astounding 92.5% for the same time frame (281 vs 146). So, looks like things really improved in Naperville over the course of 2009.

On a more extended basis the trend is moderated somewhat by a 2008 that was weaker than the past year.. If we look back to Q1 08 thru Q4 09 we see the following: Homes for Sale dropped 20.7% to 1,297 from 1,636. Homes Under Contract are down 12.5% to 225 from 257. Homes Sold increased 44.1% to 281 from 195.

As always, if you want more detailed information or to look at the numbers on a more hyper-local level (zip code or subdivision) simply Order your free Market Report or drop me an email.  My next post will look at pricing for the same periods. Check back!

Standardized Good Faith Estimate & Updated Settlement Statement (HUD-1)

Effective today, January 1, 2010 several new procedures and forms go into effect, courtesy of Housing and Urban Development, that, in theory will allow home buyers who are obtaining mortgages to better understand and compare their options.  In theory, this will allow them to obtain better loan terms, lower interest rates, and lower closing costs. Copies of both forms are below.

[download id="9,8"]

One of the big benefits is the standardized Good Faith Estimate. In the past, each lender used their own form/format to deliver pertinent information to the loan shopper. Obviously this could lead to making comparisons more difficult than necessary. Now each lender will be using the same forms and as result borrowers will be able to make value comparisons much more easily, and potentially, secure better terms.

Additionally, there are new requirements on lenders as to make sure that quoted amounts do not change between estimate and closing. In fact, some of the items cannot change without affecting the closing date. There are others that can change within certain percentages.  As a borrower this gives you some certainty that preciously may not have been there.

Listed below are additional resources for more information. As always, feel free to give me a call 630.542.7732 or email me to discuss this or any other topic further.

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Good Holiday News for Naperville housing market

Illinois Home Sales Record Major Gains in November from a Year Ago
Sales Up 64.0% Statewide and 71.6% in Chicago Region

This was the headline from a news release out of Springfield this week and marks the second consecutive month that double digit gains were seen in Illinois home sales numbers. Statewide total home sales (which include single-family and condominiums) in November 2009 reached 10,361 homes sold, up 64.0 percent from November 2008 sales of 6,317, marking the third consecutive month of year-over-year sales increases in Illinois.

And the forecast for the next several months?

“Forecasts for December, January and February indicate sales increasing robustly in Illinois and Chicago on an annual basis, but median price movements in Illinois hold the potential for a mild recovery that is not, as yet, evident in the Chicago market,” Dr. Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) of the University of Illinois.

While statewide markets seem to be stabilizing, we like to look at the numbers on a more local level. In DuPage County median prices of homes sold (single family and conds/townhomes) are relatively flat from a year ago.

In Naperville, the average median price for single family homes is about 5.8% lower than than it was a year ago. Inventory is down about 5.7% for the same period.

All told, Naperville may not be experiencing the the same rates of recovery that other areas of the state are seeing, but then again, we did not fall as sharply either. We will continue to keep an eye on the numbers and provide our interpretation as viewed thru a Naperville lens. If you want to see additional numbers or examine them in more detail contact me at 630.542.7732 or email me. Have a great holiday season and Merry Christmas.

Mixed numbers for Naperville townhomes and condos

The numbers for attached homes in Naperville over the last 12 weeks have some positives in them: Units For Sale dropped 10% while units Sold climbed 17%. Obviously the decrease in inventory and increased sales bodes well for those who have their condos or townhomes on the market.

From a dollar perspective, prices for units Sold and Under Contract are down sharply -14% and -15% respectively. Some of this average decline in median prices could just be variations in the what units have sold (lower priced units vs higher priced units) and the seasonal nature of the market,  but some may also be reflective of a continued resetting of prices.

Naperville November home sales continue strong.

There has been a significant amount of news coverage lately on home sale statistics. The Illinois Association of Realtors (IAR) recently announced record sales levels for October. On a more local level we are continuing to see the seasonal effect typical of this time of year, although market activity remains strong over the same period a year ago.

This report focuses on single family home activity in Naperville. Other posts will focus on townhome and condo activity in Naperville and Aurora. If you want to drill down even more, detailed reports are available by zip code. Just click the button to the right and indicate in what area you want additional information. It will be emailed to you promptly.

Last 12 Weeks vs Previous 12 Weeks: (Source -Terradatum/MRED, LLC). Numbers shown are based on single family data. Contact me for further individual breakdowns.

Homes Under Contract, 20 vs 29, down 16.9%. We have seen a bit of a slowdown in homes going under contract. This is typical of the seasonal nature of real estate. This is the first down month after 7 consecutive months on the uptick. Homes Sold went from 29 12 weeks ago to 20 or a decrease of 32.7%. Again, this is not unusual give the time of year. On a year over year basis, Homes Sold are up 16.2% over the same period one year ago. That is good news for the long term.

Continuing the trend started last month, Homes For Sale decreased almost 17% from 1090 to 907. With fewer homes on the market, we should begin to see some stabilization in pricing.

Median Price for Homes Sold in November 09 is down 5.2% from $408,210 to $387,162 This change is probably more a function of which properties are selling . The median for Homes Under Contract however, dropped from $424,462 to $405,554 – a decrease of 4.5%. Median List Price remained relatively flat: $489,400 vs $491,217.

The Market Action Index is broken out by market quartiles this month and reflects different activity levels for each market segment. The lower priced homes have seen the most stability in activity, tier two the second most, and so on. the high end luxury market continues to move at the slowest pace. For more detailed information, send an email request with your specifics or complete the Report Request and it will be emailed to you shortly. And, as always, feel free to share this information with others.

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Aurora Condo and Townhome market report

New this month – Market Report on Condos and Townhomes in Aurora. This will be following the same format as the monthly single family homes report but will focus on this segment of the market. Industry news in recent weeks has included the expansion and extension of the Home Buyer’s Tax Credit. Essentially, the program for first time buyers requires a contract date no later than April 30, 2010 and a close date no later than June 30, 2010. The amount is 10% or a maximum of $8,000. Income limits have been adjusted upward so more people may be eligible. Existing homeowners (not just upgraders) who have owned and lived in their home for five consecutive of the last eight years may be eligible for up to $6,500. This chart has a good summarization of the changes. And for a Frequently Asked Questions or FAQ, go here.

Data comparisons* are made for the current 12 week period vs the previous 12 weeks.

Homes Under Contract, 13 vs 10, or an increase of 30%. This upward trend has been steadily continuing over the last several months and continues into the fall months. Homes Sold remained steady – 11 vs 11. They have been at this level on a continuous basis since early June, 2009, indicating a relatively stable market.

Continuing a trend that  started in July, Homes For Sale decreased 9% from 610 to 558. This continued reduction in inventory bodes well for stabilization in pricing and competition in the marketplace.

Median Price for Homes Sold in October 09 is down less that 1% from $152,167 to $151,288 – an insignificant change. The median for Homes Under Contract however, dropped from $162,575 to $150,896 – a decrease of 7.2%. Median List Price dropped 2.5% from $162,262 to $158,171. All three pricing metrics have been gradually declining over the past 6 months.

Condos and Townhomes in Aurora, IL

These stats are also available on an individual zip code basis. Contact me to take a closer look at your particular area. Or request your own customized report and it will be emailed promptly.

Housing Tax Credit Extension and Expansion one step nearer

On Monday evening, the Senate cloture vote of 85-2 moved the legislation one step closer to a full vote and a potential signing by the President later this week or weekend. HR3548 contains a trio of measures that extend unemployment benefits, extends and expands the housing tax credit, and thirdly allows for recovery of previously paid taxes for companies losing money in 2008 and 2009.

As of Weds evening both Houses had passed versions of the bill that contained similar provisions:

The details of the housing tax credit provisions look like this:

1. The $8,000 credit for first time buyers would extend to to the end of June 2010 for contracts signed by the end of April 2010.
2. For existing home owners who have been in there homes for five or more years, the credit would be $6,500.
3. There are also measures to help the government catch those who attempt to cheat.

The next step is a vote on the bill by the full Senate and then the House. From what I have been reading, little opposition is expected in the House so the bill could be on the President’s desk as early as this weekend. Stay tuned for further updates.

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Home Buyer Tax Credit Extension Update

First of all, the credit has not been extended yet despite all the rumors floating around. Here is the latest information from Washington as well as a projected timeline for further action from www.FixHousingFirst.com.

The Status – From www.TheHill.com “…Under the agreement struck by Sens. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) and Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.), the credit will last until the end of April and can be applied to homes worth up to $800,000. Dodd and Isakson said that as many as 70 percent of Americans will be eligible for it.

The home credit’s backers, which include Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), have said that it can help the economy recover and has already led to the jump in home sales seen around the country in recent months.

Isakson called the provision a “once-in-a-lifetime” credit that can “bring the housing market back to some sense of vitality and values.”

Though the previous provision could only be used by individuals making up to $75,000 and couples making up to $150,000, the extended credit can be used by individuals with incomes of up to $125,000 and couples of up to $225,000.

The deal also provides a new $6,500 credit to homebuyers looking to move out of their current homes into more expensive ones….”

The Timeline: From an email from www. FixHousingFirst.com comes this projected schedule:

As you may know, last night the Senate reached a deal on extending and expanding the home buyer tax credit, and they plan on attaching it to the unemployment insurance bill. You can see a copy of the bill here. The tax credit provisions begin on p. 14.

Near as we can tell at this moment, the process from here will go like this:

1. There will be a cloture vote at 5 pm on Monday in the Senate on the new Baucus substitute. If it succeeds, it takes 30 hours to “ripen,” i.e., before the bill can be brought to the floor.
2. Thirty hours later it’s Tuesday night. There will likely then be a cloture vote on the full unemployment insurance bill, as amended.
3. Thirty hours after that, it’s Thursday morning, when the Senate will vote on final passage of the bill.
4. The House could take up the bill as early as Thursday afternoon or Friday.  They likely will just accept the Senate bill and vote on that.  If their bill differs from the Senate bill, then the whole thing has to back through Conference. That’s unlikely at this point – and undesirable.
5. The plan/hope is to have the bill on the President’s desk as soon as next weekend.

Obviously, this is all subject to change without notice. This is the Congress, after all.

You can see from the above that it is important to keep weighing in throughout the week – and sending this link to your network of friends, colleagues, family, neighbors, customers, employees, suppliers and urging them to do the same.  The amount of emails being sent through the Fix Housing First site has been fantastic – keep it up!”

Summary: So hang in there, be patient, something is coming in the near future. What the final product will be after both Houses get done with it, no one can predict. Keep checking back or subscribe to the RSS feed for updated information as it occurs. peace.

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Housing Indicators Expected to Rise

From Market Watch 10/19/2009

Major housing indicators should rise again in September, according to a survey of top economic forecasters ahead of a relatively light week for economic data. Data on housing will dominate the headlines this coming week. Full Report

We will be keeping watch and posting links to the most relevant posts/articles/releases as they become available. With continued strength in the markets and activity in DC on the Tax Credit, housing should continue to be at the forefront of the news in the fourth quarter.

New Look for Naperville Market Stats

There is a new look to the Market Stats charts for Naperville, IL. The flash charts shown below allow you to look at different time frames, hover over data points to get detailed information and more. Play with them, change the view period (top left), move the sliders (bottom right) to select different ranges, or hover over a data point to see the details. Don’t forget to peek at the Inventory bar graph to see how that is tracking with the graphed stats.

Play with them and please, let me know what you think. (And if I am getting too geeky with the stats, let me know that too!)

All Naperville, Single Family Homes

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Adjust the slide bar above to change the view period.

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Naperville, 60540 Single Family Homes

[kml_flashembed movie="http://www.altosresearch.com/altos/widgets/AltosChart.swf" height="400" width="600" fversion="9" useexpressinstall="true" fvars="st = IL ; c = NAPERVILLE; z = 60540 ; ts = z ; pai = 52577180 ; q = a ; mini = median_inventory ; datahost = data.altosresearch.com ; datahostssl = false ; rt = sf ; s = mean_dom:l,median_price:r ; ra = c ; ihr = false ; fc = false ; rf = xml ; u = tonylazz ; p = aes_enc::BojMsH5VOSeZzqFUwfX2ow==" /]

Adjust the slide bar above to change the view period.

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Naperville, 60563 Single Family Homes

[kml_flashembed movie="http://www.altosresearch.com/altos/widgets/AltosChart.swf" height="400" width="600" fversion="9" useexpressinstall="true" fvars="st = IL ; c = NAPERVILLE; z = 60563 ; ts = z ; pai = 52577180 ; q = a ; mini = median_inventory ; datahost = data.altosresearch.com ; datahostssl = false ; rt = sf ; s = mean_dom:l,median_price:r ; ra = c ; ihr = false ; fc = false ; rf = xml ; u = tonylazz ; p = aes_enc::BojMsH5VOSeZzqFUwfX2ow==" /]

Adjust the slide bar above to change the view period.

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Naperville, 60564 Single Family Homes

[kml_flashembed movie="http://www.altosresearch.com/altos/widgets/AltosChart.swf" height="400" width="600" fversion="9" useexpressinstall="true" fvars="st = IL ; c = NAPERVILLE; z = 60564 ; ts = z ; pai = 52577180 ; q = a ; mini = median_inventory ; datahost = data.altosresearch.com ; datahostssl = false ; rt = sf ; s = mean_dom:l,median_price:r ; ra = c ; ihr = false ; fc = false ; rf = xml ; u = tonylazz ; p = aes_enc::BojMsH5VOSeZzqFUwfX2ow==" /]

Adjust the slide bar above to change the view period.

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Naperville, 60565 Single Family Homes

[kml_flashembed movie="http://www.altosresearch.com/altos/widgets/AltosChart.swf" height="400" width="600" fversion="9" useexpressinstall="true" fvars="st = IL ; c = NAPERVILLE; z = 60565 ; ts = z ; pai = 52577180 ; q = a ; mini = median_inventory ; datahost = data.altosresearch.com ; datahostssl = false ; rt = sf ; s = mean_dom:l,median_price:r ; ra = c ; ihr = false ; fc = false ; rf = xml ; u = tonylazz ; p = aes_enc::BojMsH5VOSeZzqFUwfX2ow==" /]

Adjust the slide bar above to change the view period.

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